Issue 371
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Oura Points

• • •

In this issue of E&O

• Last week I shared some highlights from six years of financial documents that Oura filed with the Finnish government, since news of Oura’s confidential IPO filing in the US was making headlines. I dug into annual revenue, marketing spend, P&L, personnel costs, and the geographic breakdown of the company’s revenue.
• I also asked E&O readers to suggest other areas to dig into. The most common request was for more intel on Oura’s hardware vs subscription revenue breakdown and its hardware margin. More on those and rings sold annually below.
• In other news, CMMI updated its list of accepted participants in its ACCESS Model program. It added nearly 20 new orgs including Perry Health, Fabric Health, GenieMD, Heyday Health, Mindspan and more.
• Scoop: Neko Health, the tech-forward clinics company co-founded by Spotify’s co-founder Daniel Ek, secured its first few FDA clearances, one of the last steps the company needed to take to open its first clinic in the US.
• It’s all below… scroll on down.

Analysis: Oura’s rings sold per year, hardware margin, hardware-to-software revenue split, and more…

(Note: Like I did last time, the Euros from Oura’s European filings have been translated to US dollars using an average exchange rate for their respective years.)

Catch up: A few weeks back, Oura announced that it has confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC. Soon after, E&O dug through six years of Oura’s financials (thanks to the Finnish government) to better understand the company’s annual revenue, geographic breakdown of revenue, marketing spend, personnel costs and more. That was E&O Issue 370.

In response, E&O readers sent in a number of requests. The most common: Oura’s hardware margin and its hardware vs subscription revenue breakdown.

E&O collected publicly stated milestone numbers from Oura (press releases), dug into the international financial filings (annual returns), and scoured transcripts of interviews conducted with Oura executives (podcasts mostly) to piece together the analysis below. As a result, we have a good estimate for how many rings the company has sold annually, its margins on that hardware, and some indications of the hardware-software revenue breakdown.

Oura Rings Sold Per Fiscal Year

Comprehensively tracking Oura’s unit sales requires piecing together official milestones along with revenue-based estimations. Here’s a timeline of Oura Ring sales numbers for the company’s earlier years using both of these methods:

In the beginning, Oura’s sales volume was modest. Its 2015 Kickstarter campaign netted about 2,400 pre-orders, and following the debut of the Gen 2 ring in late 2017, sales climbed to nearly 10,000 units. During these hardware-revenue-only years, we can use an estimated base Average Selling Price (ASP) of roughly $299 to determine unit sales based on their annual revenue numbers.

2019: Oura officially announced passing 100,000 cumulative Gen 2 rings sold by August 2019. We also know the company had about $30.2 million in revenue that fiscal year, so they sold roughly 101,000 rings that calendar year.

2020: Fueled by the pandemic and early partnerships with big names like the NBA and WNBA, revenue jumped to $67.5 million, which is roughly 225,000 rings sold.

2021: Generating over $113 million in revenue before launching their subscription model in late October of this year, Oura sold an estimated 378,000 rings.

Early 2022: This massive holiday momentum pushed Oura to a publicly announced milestone: 1 million cumulative rings sold by March 2022.

So starting at the end of 2021, Oura’s business begins to diversify as it ramps up subscription revenue, enterprise sales, and new distribution channels that will change the company’s margins. This period (2023 to 2025) is also when Oura’s growth starts to really take off.

To understand this growth phase, we can anchor our analysis to two solid data points that the company officially announced in separate press releases: reaching 5.5 million cumulative rings sold by September 2025 and being on track to surpass 5 million paid members by mid-2026.

By using these milestones along with the official financial documents, we can make some educated guesses about Oura’s Average Selling Price (ASP), its hardware margin, and its hardware-to-software revenue split.

The ASP goes down to at least $273

By combining the 5.5 million rings milestone with the official income statements, we can calculate a blended ASP. We know Oura hit 1 million rings sold by March 2022. To reach the 5.5 million figure by September 2025, they had to sell 4.5 million rings during the 2023, 2024, and 2025 fiscal years.

If we look at the official consolidated revenue for those three years (adjusted using average exchange rates for each year):

FY2023: $217.4 million
FY2024: $396.3 million
FY2025: $924.2 million
Total 3-Year Revenue: $1.54 billion

If we use the somewhat shaky metric (explained more below) that hardware accounted for roughly 80 percent of revenue, that means Oura generated roughly $1.23 billion in hardware revenue over those three years. Dividing $1.23 billion by 4.5 million rings sold gives us an Average Selling Price of approximately $273 per ring.

Why a lower ASP is expected for these years: While the base retail price is still $299, this $273 blended ASP is in line with Oura’s strategic shift under CEO Tom Hale. Hale noted in various interviews over the years that to drive volume, Oura had to move away from being purely DTC and expand into wholesale retail, partnering with companies like Best Buy, Target, Amazon, John Lewis, and others. Because retailers take a bite out of the margin on every unit they sell, Oura’s recognized revenue per ring dropped as it inked these deals. This is also when Oura started selling to enterprise customers and it offers a discount for bulk buys on a sliding scale. It also offers rings with more premium finishes at a high price point, but those sales are likely too small to push the ASP higher. (While its partnership with Gucci for a $1,000 Oura Ring was by all accounts successful, I couldn’t find any disclosures around how many of these rings sold. Given that lack of disclosure, I would guess the number is insignificant.)

Estimating Oura’s hardware margin for 2025

If we use the FY2025 data from the Finnish accounting filings, we can approximate Oura’s hardware margins. Oura spent roughly $326.4 million on physical purchases to manufacture the estimated 2.5 million rings sold that year, meaning the base hardware cost per ring comes out to approximately $130.55. Subtracting the $130.55 manufacturing cost from the $273 blended ASP gives us a gross hardware profit of roughly $142 per ring. That means Oura still maintains a 52% gross margin on its hardware, even taking into account the wholesale retail discounts.

The 80/20 Split is Holding Steady

Oura’s disclosure of 5 million paid members by mid-2026 is pretty solid evidence that its (once) controversial pivot to a $6/month subscription model was the right move. If Oura has 5 million members paying roughly $72 annually that′s $360 million in annual recurring revenue.

In early 2025, on Sequoia’s Masters of Scale podcast, the host said that Oura’s hardware accounted for “80 plus percent” of revenue while interviewing CEO Tom Hale. (Hale neither confirmed nor denied it, but during the conversation it comes off as a tacit confirmation. Maybe that number came from a pre-show discussion or the company’s talking points provided to the host ahead of time?)

If Oura is on track to generate roughly $2 billion in total revenue for the 2026 fiscal year, as it has publicly stated, that $360 million in consumer subscriptions would represent 18 percent of their total revenue. But Oura’s fiscal year ends in September, so, as of this writing, it has a few more months to sell in FY2026. Let’s take a crack at where it could end up for subscription revenue in FY2026:

While it could change, Oura is currently adding about 300,000 new paying members each month by E&O’s estimate. So, by the end of its fiscal year 2026 (last day of September 2026) it should have about 5.9 million paying members. That means the average number of paying members during FY2026 would be about 4.1 million, which would give it about $400 million in subscription revenue for FY2026 — or about 20 percent of its expected $2 billion revenue for the year. Importantly, those numbers stand on their own and add some more credence to the 80/20 revenue split mentioned during that podcast episode.

OK, that’s a lot. What else is of interest before we get a look at the Oura S-1?

ACCESS Model updates: 21 new names on CMMI’s ACCESS Model accepted participants list

CMMI added some 21 new organizations to the list of accepted ACCESS Model participants. Some of these are affiliated with each other or with existing accepted participants. This time around CMMI didn’t take anyone off the list like they did in the last go around of edits, as E&O mentioned in Issue 369 of this newsletter.

Some of the newly accepted participants include:

• VirtualCare Medical Group P.A., which is affiliated with Fabric Health, the company formerly known as Florence that acquired Zipnosis.
• Perry Medical Group of Florida P.A., an affiliate of Perry Health.
• Heyday Health Medical Group Inc., an affiliate of Heyday Health.
• Mindspan Medical P.C., an affiliate of Mindspan.
• As well as Avery Telehealth, Unika Health, Sailor Health, GenieMD, Qurate Health, and more

Scoop: Neko Health’s first FDA clearances

One more quick scoop: Neko Health, the tech-forward clinic company from Sweden, just secured two FDA clearances, but it hasn’t announced them yet. The move was widely expected as it is set to open its first clinic in NYC any day now.

The core component of a visit to a Neko Health clinic is a full body scan using the company’s proprietary device, which is likely what the FDA clearance is focused on (no summary documents posted yet.) The FDA clearances are for two devices named “Derma-2” and “Spectrum-2,” which, again, are probably parts of its walk-in scanner device.

Here’s how Neko describes its scan on its website:

Spectrum-2 was cleared as an oximeter device likely citing a predicate like a pulse ox made by Massimo, while Derma-2 was cleared as a telethermographic system like an infrared camera or thermal imager. A device by the same name, Derma-2, is also registered as a Class 1 “surgical camera” with the FDA.

Finally, Neko Health also might be using an FDA-cleared device as part of its scanner that was originally developed by another company. The device is called the Demetra Dermatoscope and it was made by a company named Barco N.V.

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